Accuracy
| Country | Division | Analysed | Recommended | Accuracy | Low Recommended | Low Accuracy | Always Home | Log Loss | Market Log Loss | Brier | Value W/L | Value ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| England | Premier League | 1189 | 111 | 80 % | 201 | 72 % | 43 % | 1.0167 | 0.9967 | 0.5842 | 43 / 245 | -48.2 % |
| England | Championship | 1726 | 10 | 60 % | 151 | 67 % | 44 % | 1.1009 | 1.0795 | 0.6340 | 170 / 582 | -29.4 % |
| England | League 1 | 1715 | 10 | 80 % | 60 | 73 % | 43 % | 1.0862 | 1.0753 | 0.6208 | 115 / 553 | -44.0 % |
| England | League 2 | 1741 | 1 | 100 % | 6 | 83 % | 43 % | 1.1014 | 1.0806 | 0.6405 | 112 / 558 | -25.3 % |
| England | National League | 1738 | 7 | 86 % | 93 | 72 % | 43 % | 1.0895 | 1.0762 | 0.6246 | 110 / 528 | -41.4 % |
| Spain | La Liga | 1197 | 184 | 84 % | 265 | 77 % | 46 % | 1.0208 | 1.0069 | 0.5723 | 134 / 296 | -2.6 % |
| Spain | Segunda Division | 1476 | 4 | 75 % | 34 | 76 % | 46 % | 1.0921 | 1.0738 | 0.6293 | 86 / 351 | -29.5 % |
| Italy | Serie A | 1215 | 134 | 76 % | 227 | 70 % | 40 % | 1.0316 | 1.0181 | 0.5817 | 72 / 242 | -33.6 % |
| Italy | Serie B | 1193 | 14 | 79 % | 41 | 73 % | 40 % | 1.1253 | 1.1069 | 0.6401 | 55 / 374 | -59.8 % |
| Germany | Bundesliga | 960 | 111 | 78 % | 176 | 73 % | 42 % | 1.0423 | 1.0227 | 0.5847 | 41 / 220 | -51.1 % |
| Germany | 2. Bundesliga | 960 | 1 | 100 % | 3 | 100 % | 44 % | 1.1189 | 1.1061 | 0.6286 | 50 / 245 | -34.3 % |
| France | Ligue 1 | 968 | 24 | 79 % | 110 | 70 % | 44 % | 1.0663 | 1.0473 | 0.5937 | 34 / 156 | -37.0 % |
| France | Ligue 2 | 1043 | 1 | 100 % | 4 | 100 % | 41 % | 1.1283 | 1.1056 | 0.6480 | 41 / 332 | -48.1 % |
| Netherlands | Eredivisie | 991 | 87 | 77 % | 131 | 81 % | 43 % | 1.0034 | 0.9857 | 0.5722 | 32 / 177 | -21.7 % |
| Portugal | Primeira Liga | 976 | 218 | 83 % | 272 | 81 % | 42 % | 0.9858 | 0.9743 | 0.5484 | 49 / 177 | -33.5 % |
| Scotland | Premiership | 729 | 131 | 79 % | 166 | 78 % | 44 % | 1.0219 | 1.0066 | 0.5718 | 21 / 90 | -50.4 % |
| Scotland | Championship | 577 | 11 | 73 % | 31 | 74 % | 41 % | 1.1275 | 1.1065 | 0.6316 | 22 / 168 | -56.4 % |
| Scotland | League 1 | 564 | 10 | 80 % | 18 | 78 % | 41 % | 1.0978 | 1.0722 | 0.6283 | 50 / 267 | -37.6 % |
| Scotland | League 2 | 586 | 0 | 0 % | 0 | 0 % | 45 % | 1.1336 | 1.1250 | 0.6406 | 45 / 177 | -7.9 % |
| Belgium | Pro League | 973 | 60 | 77 % | 124 | 77 % | 43 % | 1.0579 | 1.0450 | 0.5967 | 43 / 177 | -35.5 % |
| Greece | Super League | 741 | 167 | 80 % | 207 | 78 % | 42 % | 0.9820 | 0.9726 | 0.5566 | 32 / 131 | -30.6 % |
| Turkey | Süper Lig | 1068 | 250 | 73 % | 441 | 66 % | 45 % | 1.0771 | 1.0115 | 0.6032 | 258 / 722 | -27.3 % |
Log loss and Brier score measure how well calibrated the probabilities are, and lower is better. Log loss is highlighted where it beats the bookmakers' own prices on the same matches. Value ROI is the return from level stakes on every selection the model priced as value — it answers a different question from Recommended accuracy, and today it is usually negative, so treat the Value signal on the Fixtures page as experimental rather than a source of picks to stake on. Hover any column heading for a one-line explanation.